Back favourite when Set Down is one of the most popular tennis trading strategies. It’s a swing trading strategy. You will profit from huge swings in a tennis match. You will profit more from one match than using Back Serving Player strategy. Though you can lose more too.
There is high chance that favourite player will win second set if he lost first. Huge odd swings in tennis matches are affected mostly by breaks and you can exploit it to successfully make profit.
1) Choose tennis game where odds on favourite player are 1.5 and lower.
2) Back favourite tennis player if he lost first set, use players with 1.5 and lower odds.
3) Wait for favorite to break or take second set then Lay him to get profit and no lose situation.
This graph shows odds for Nicolas Almagro in tennis match between Nicolas Almagro and Luckas Kubot. As you can see before the match odds for Almagro were around 1.23. Almagro lost first set in tie-break and odds moved to 1.72. Then he won second set by 6:2. Odds dropped to 1.25. In this example you would need to Back Almagro after the first set at odds of 1.72 and trade out(Lay) when Almagro broke Kobot service game(odds around 1.39) or when he won second set and get no lose and only profit situation. In this case you win 49 quid(1.72-1.25) that means if you put all profit on Almagro and your bets were 100$ you will get 47$ profit if Almagro wins in 3rd set and in match if not you lose nothing. Although favourite player may seem confident in his game, I recommend you to put some green on other player accordingly to odds. You can never know for 100% which player will win in 3rd set.
If favourite tennis player struggles in second set you can trade out without any profit/small profit/small loss. If he or she doesn’t look confident then trade out in 6th-7th game of second set. Also you can use graphs to get more knowledge of a tennis match if you see big swings in first set like in example graph above, then it’s very likely that favourite player will not give up without fight as odds show that favourite player is fighting.
Don’t Back favourite when:
- He looks really unmotivated.
- He got an injury
- He lost first set almost without any fight
Even if you fallow all these rules there still will be some losers. If favourite player lost a break in second set you can trade out and take a loss. Or if you really trust in your selections you can let it roll to end of the match. There are plenty of matches where favorite player loses first set and loses service game in second and still breaks back and even wins a match.
Obviously you should use smaller stakes accordingly to your bank than using Back Serving Player strategy as loses will be bigger. As in other guides there will be usual suggestions too: Analyze data, statistics and fallow matches via live stream or TV. Start with small stakes, grow up you confidence, adjust this guide to your style and go Big 
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